Forecasting and Proactive Management of Obsolescence for Sustainment- Dominated Systems

Many technologies have life cycles that are shorter than the life cycle of the product they are in. Life cycle mismatches caused by the obsolescence of technology (and particularly the obsolescence of electronic parts) results in high sustainment costs for long field life systems, e.g., avionics and military systems. This paper describes a new methodology for forecasting electronic part obsolescence using a combination of life cycle curve forecasting and the determination of electronic part vendor-specific windows of obsolescence using data mining of historical last-order or last-ship dates. The new methodology not only enables more accurate obsolescence forecasts but can also generate forecasts for user-specified confidence levels. The methodology has been demonstrated on both individual parts and modules, and used to enable design refresh planning of systems and within the formation of material risk indices associated with the computation of sustainment dollars at risk.